March 18 Tokyo Update

Everybody I know wants to learn exactly how I am able to remain so positive, given the situation at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and how close we are to it (a mere 150 miles).

It's actually quite simple: The radiation just isn't worth worrying about yet, at this point.

At the time of this writing I await the release of "Reactor Status Update 13" from the Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, an information source I've relied upon, this week. (http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/). Why on earth anyone would seek out CNN or FOX's opinions over the JAIF's facts is quite beyond me. At a minimum, the western media is 12 to 18 hours behind the Japanese media. And the Japanese media are not freaking out. That's a fact.

Radiation, as many of us are no doubt coming to understand increasingly well, is measured in units called "microSeiverts per hour" at the perimeter of the Daiichi plant. (An understanding of what these figures (μSv= microseivert) mean can be found here). Up close to the reactor, of course, the radiation is measured in miliseiverts, an altogether different kettle of fish. But further away, the amount of radiation drops into the microseivert range, which is very encouraging.

The amount of reported radiation spiked dramatically on Tuesday evening, from nearly 500 mSv to over 6300 mSv, leading many to panic as a result. But since that time, the amount of radiation reported has dropped steadily and significantly, almost certainly as a direct result of the almost unbelievable efforts of the TEPCO "Fukushima 50" and the Self Defense Forces. In finance, the "trend is your friend", and the trend at this point is pointing to less radiation and more control.

Here is the raw data, as reported by the JAIF:

Date/Time -- microSeiverts of Radiation reported
3/15 @ 7pm -- 498 μSv/ hour
3/16 @ 8am -- 6308 μSv/ hour (the "Tuesday Peak")
3/16 @ 12:30 -- 3391 μSv/ hour
3/16 @ 7pm -- 1937 μSv/ hour
3/17 @ 9am -- 1472 μSv/ hour
3/17 @ 4pm -- 646.2 μSv/ hour
3/17 @ 10pm -- 646.2 μSv/ hour
3/17 @ 10pm -- 646.2 μSv/ hour

In comparison, the Fukushima Daini nuclear power station is radiating about 15 μSv per hour, so there is quite a ways to go to clear this up completely.

So, what do these numbers actually mean for Tokyo?

One way to judge the situation is to look at actual radiation monitoring equipment in the area, and make a determination about the reported information. If radiation were really leaking into the city of Tokyo, it would be detectable. Here is a list of streaming Tokyo/Chiba geiger counter sites I have found:

http://park18.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html
Location: Hino City, Western Tokyo

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-chiba
Location: North Chiba, Chiba Prefecture

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/%E3%82%AC%E3%82%A4%E3%82%AC%E3%83%BC%E3%82%AB%E3%82%A6%E3%83%B3%E3%82%BF

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-tokyo

Interpretation -- without exception, the above sites are currently giving readings that are within the normal range (between 10 and 20) of what is called "background radiation" -- the usual imperceptible cooking you get from the sun, planets, and the stars every day.

This makes the overreaction of many (primarily foreign) residents unwarranted simply on the strength of the only measurable data.

There is tons more I could write, but it's been a LONG week at work and I'm fine leaving things as they are at this point. This weekend should prove decisive with power restored to the reactor cooling systems and a host of unique water spraying vehicles becoming increasingly available. One way or the other, we'll turn a corner this weekend.

My money is on the humans.